Tue, Oct 21, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 05 | 08 | 122 |
| WPG | 211 | 14 | 011 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Toby Enstrom, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 2:37WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Grant Clitsome, Paul Postma · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 7:03CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Riley Nash, Chris Terry · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:26WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:10WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P1 6:14WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 9:03WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:45CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:04CARAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:53CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:06WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:06WPGZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Tlusty – Nash9:49
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm4:47
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- McClement – Terry – Boychuk6:41
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Boychuk – Rask2:36
xG 0.04–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore9:43
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk11:51
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
- Gleason – Harrison8:26
xG 0.09–0.36 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Galiardi – Lowry9:12
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Halischuk3:33
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Scheifele11:35
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Postma8:59
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian6:06
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba11:18
xG 0.15–0.55 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).