Thu, Oct 23, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 09 | 117 | 232 |
| NSH | 114 | 17 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21CHIBen SmithAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:12NSHJames NealAssists: Seth Jones, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 16:12NSHJames NealAssists: Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 1:52NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 12:36CHIAndrew ShawUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:56CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:36CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:07NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Shaw2:30
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Toews – Kane5:41
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kane – Shaw7:23
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger3:12
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk12:56
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:33
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:04
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Wilson – Smith10:47
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg13:00
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Stalberg11:05
xG 0.35–0.38 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Beck – Jarnkrok10:20
xG 0.10–0.13 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:24
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Jones11:53
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm15:31
xG 0.61–0.83 (42%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).