Thu, Oct 23, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 07 | 05 | 016 |
| CGY | 110 | 29 | 25 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:18CGYDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Paul Byron · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:32CGYMatt StajanAssists: Paul Byron, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 4:14CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 3:23CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Joe Colborne · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 5:15CGYLance BoumaAssists: Josh Jooris, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:11CARChris Terry: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:30CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Skinner – Lindholm4:54
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Tlusty – Nash – Rask2:19
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Terry – Boychuk10:58
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Rask5:56
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles14:31
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gleason – Faulk2:07
xG 0.01–0.11 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gleason – Murphy13:42
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Colborne – Monahan10:15
xG 0.56–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Stajan – Glencross – Byron10:35
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Bouma – Bollig – Jooris8:11
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Gaudreau11:52
xG 0.07–0.42 (14%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell16:08
xG 0.90–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–4goals 3–0
- Giordano – Brodie13:55
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Engelland – Smid17:36
xG 0.11–0.49 (19%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).