Fri, Oct 24, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 07 | 05 | 117 |
| ANA | 28 | 112 | 114 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:37ANASami VatanenPPGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 14:00CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 13:06ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 17:33ANARyan GetzlafENAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:24CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:54ANANate Thompson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:21CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46ANABen Lovejoy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:21ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:38CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17ANARickard Rakell: Holding2 min
- P3 18:17CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:17ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – Boll – Chaput7:57
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Skille – Anisimov – Letestu9:19
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg7:15
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen13:35
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef2:56
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Erixon7:59
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski11:42
xG 0.32–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:18
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly9:20
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem8:22
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Karlsson – Rakell8:24
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm15:02
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler15:59
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Stoner – Vatanen13:38
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).