Sat, Oct 25, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Dallas Stars 5, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 39 | 112 | 531 |
| NYI | 28 | 213 | 38 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:25DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:42NYINikolay KuleminSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 1:25NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Strome, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P2 5:25DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 6:50DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 15:50DALAntoine RousselAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–3
- P2 16:20NYILubomir VisnovskyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Cory Conacher · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 9:39NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 15:09NYIFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
- P3 15:32DALShawn HorcoffAssists: Erik Cole, Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–6
- P3 19:59NYIFrans NielsenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:27NYIBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:49NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P2 2:43DALShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
- P2 6:20NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:29DALPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P2 12:51NYINick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:53NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:43
xG 0.87–0.53 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour8:17
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Eaves8:01
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin11:10
xG 0.43–1.16 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon16:16
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak11:06
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski15:33
xG 1.08–1.23 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:12
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:28
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin9:19
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Conacher12:22
xG 0.65–1.01 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey16:15
xG 1.18–0.49 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:53
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Strait – de Haan12:21
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).