Sat, Oct 25, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 08 | 16 | 00 | 124 |
| ARI | 013 | 09 | 116 | 13 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:47FLABrandon PirriAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 9:51ARIJustin HodgmanPPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 2:20ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:40FLATomas Kopecky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:17ARIJustin Hodgman: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:50FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:15FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:00FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:17ARIRob Klinkhammer: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:54FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:36FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:18FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:25FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:11
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov11:08
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky7:31
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Fleischmann – Pirri8:47
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson9:15
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov14:12
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:19
xG 0.84–0.96 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Korpikoski – Klinkhammer9:01
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Erat – Gagner – Hodgman8:47
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:14
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan5:37
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Schlemko14:50
xG 0.76–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy11:45
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone13:11
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).