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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 26, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim

San Jose Sharks 4, Anaheim Ducks 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS214110113437
ANA01008116134

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:25SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:39SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:03SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P3 11:40SJSTommy WingelsPPAssists: Matt Nieto, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–0
  5. P3 14:53ANAMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (37)
  1. P1 2:16ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:16SJSJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:53SJSAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 15:38SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 18:38ANATim Jackman: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 4:35SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
  7. P2 9:40SJSScott Hannan: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 9:40ANASami Vatanen: Embellishment2 min
  9. P2 9:52SJSMirco Mueller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 9:52ANARyan Getzlaf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P2 15:23SJSAdam Burish: Delaying game face off violation2 min
  12. P2 18:57SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 18:57ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 7:38ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min
  15. P3 10:18SJSJoe Pavelski: Fighting5 min · PPG
  16. P3 10:18ANABen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min · PPG
  17. P3 10:18ANATim Jackman: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 10:18ANATim Jackman: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 12:58SJSJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 12:58ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 12:58ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 12:58SJSJustin Braun: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 13:56SJSJohn Scott: Player leaves bench2 min
  24. P3 13:56SJSJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  25. P3 13:56SJSJohn Scott: Instigator2 min
  26. P3 13:56SJSJohn Scott: Game misconduct10 min
  27. P3 13:56SJSAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
  28. P3 13:56ANATim Jackman: Misconduct10 min
  29. P3 13:56ANANate Thompson: Misconduct10 min
  30. P3 13:56SJSAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
  31. P3 13:56ANANate Thompson: Roughing2 min
  32. P3 13:56ANANate Thompson: Roughing2 min
  33. P3 16:54SJSJames Sheppard: Fighting5 min
  34. P3 16:54ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
  35. P3 16:54ANAWilliam Karlsson: Slashing2 min
  36. P3 16:54ANARyan Kesler: Misconduct10 min
  37. P3 16:54ANAMatt Beleskey: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
46% to win54% to win
← SJS attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSANA
37Shots on goal34
4.4Expected goals3.5
69Shot attempts66
33Faceoffs won40
5Power plays5
75Penalty minutes90
21Hits37
15Blocked shots15
9Giveaways11
4Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

San Jose Sharks

Forward lines

  1. bestMarleau – Couture – Wingels5:12

    xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0

  2. Sheppard – Nieto – Tierney6:01

    xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  3. Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl4:16

    xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  4. Burish – Desjardins – Scott2:36

    xG 0.14–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestVlasic – Braun9:09

    xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0

  2. Burns – Mueller8:26

    xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0

  3. Hannan – Demers6:09

    xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0

Anaheim Ducks

Forward lines

  1. Thompson – Cogliano – Beleskey2:04

    xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  2. Jackman – Thompson – Etem2:07

    xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg4:41

    xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1

  4. Getzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly6:33

    xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBeauchemin – Lindholm9:13

    xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1

  2. Stoner – Vatanen7:27

    xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0

  3. Lovejoy – Fowler8:43

    xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.5 xGSJS 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1009 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.71 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).