Mon, Oct 27, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 4, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 013 | 311 | 16 | 430 |
| NYR | 05 | 03 | 512 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:29MINNate ProsserAssists: Justin Fontaine, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 6:24MINMatt CookeAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Carter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 15:38MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 2:52NYRKevin KleinAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 4:48NYRRick NashAssists: Matt Hunwick, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 5:35MINJason ZuckerAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 7:54NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Carl Hagelin, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 16:12NYRAnthony DuclairAssists: Matt Hunwick, Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 16:49NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:15NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 17:19NYRKevin Klein: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44NYRChris Kreider: Boarding5 min
- P1 19:44NYRChris Kreider: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 7:12NYRJohn Moore: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 16:05MINNino Niederreiter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund10:15
xG 1.00–0.23 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine2:08
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Carter – Zucker2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Zucker – Coyle – Niederreiter5:15
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon9:27
xG 0.99–0.60 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin11:09
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Scandella – Prosser3:55
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello5:04
xG 0.65–0.15 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Stempniak – Mueller – Duclair3:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Moore – Hagelin4:20
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Moore – Glass2:08
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi11:07
xG 1.31–0.13 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Hunwick – Moore3:22
xG 0.02–0.15 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh2:52
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).