Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 03 | 214 | 18 | 325 |
| TBL | 212 | 216 | 37 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Radko Gudas, Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:18TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 3:20TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 14:07ARIShane DoanAssists: Michael Stone, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 17:32TBLBrian BoyleGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 18:52ARIMartin EratAssists: Martin Hanzal, Sam Gagner · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 8:23TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 9:26TBLBrian BoyleAssists: JT Brown, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 12:43ARIB.J. CrombeenAssists: Joe Vitale, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 18:15TBLMatt CarlePPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Andrej Sustr · Slap, 0.04 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:07ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:33TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:33ARIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:27ARIB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:19ARIB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Gagner9:53
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Chipchura – Korpikoski – Klinkhammer7:06
xG 0.17–0.18 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Doan – Hanzal – Gagner5:28
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker4:50
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone18:21
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson2:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Michalek – Schlemko14:24
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov13:14
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 21–12goals 3–1
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin9:15
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown12:46
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos13:41
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr16:17
xG 1.39–0.24 (86%)attempts 22–15goals 3–0
- Garrison – Gudas18:04
xG 0.77–0.62 (55%)attempts 15–28goals 1–1
- Carle – Stralman15:51
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).