Thu, Oct 30, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 07 | 014 | 133 |
| FLA | 08 | 19 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:27ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 5:37FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 10:56FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Derek MacKenzie · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:42ARIMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:41ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:45FLAWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:01FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38ARIKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38ARIKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:38FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:12FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:47ARIBrandon McMillan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:47FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:51FLAScottie Upshall: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Gagner – Hodgman9:28
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Klinkhammer8:53
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Vitale – McMillan6:21
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:54
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson15:21
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Summers – Murphy6:18
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone17:39
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Fleischmann – Pirri8:21
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:59
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky6:26
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov10:32
xG 0.12–0.53 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:06
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov15:23
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson9:52
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).