Fri, Oct 31, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 29 | 114 | 331 |
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 310 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:23CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 5:30NSHCraig SmithAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:09NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 2:36CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Markus Granlund, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 4:23CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:37CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Deryk Engelland, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 10:47NSHJames NealPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:40NSHColin Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20CGYJiri Hudler: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Byron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg15:17
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 26–12goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque7:29
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wilson – Beck13:20
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Cullen – Roy – Smith13:58
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi23:54
xG 1.27–0.55 (70%)attempts 35–16goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:36
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- Ellis – Jones2:07
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Granlund5:11
xG 0.61–0.16 (80%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Setoguchi – Byron – Bouma3:07
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Byron – Gaudreau9:48
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Bouma – Bollig7:14
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:49
xG 1.07–0.57 (65%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell19:51
xG 0.62–0.90 (41%)attempts 15–34goals 0–1
- Engelland – Smid14:19
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 8–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).