Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 111 | 026 | 247 |
| TOR | 110 | 110 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10TORNazem KadriAssists: Daniel Winnik, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 16:28CHIBrad RichardsPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:18CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:22TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 2:21TORPeter HollandGWGAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:24CHIBryan Bickell: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:02TORSam Carrick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53TORStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:58CHIJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:41TORDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:40CHIBrent Seabrook: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Bickell – Morin3:07
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw2:11
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Sharp – Kane7:31
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Kruger – Saad10:27
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Keith8:38
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk10:27
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk6:40
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestAshton – Panik – Carrick3:45
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland9:57
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:28
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Winnik – Kessel – Kadri12:37
xG 0.61–1.00 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly12:25
xG 1.71–1.13 (60%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Franson13:14
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Polak2:26
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).