Sat, Nov 1, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 08 | 011 | 025 |
| CAR | 212 | 113 | 010 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CARElias LindholmGWGAssists: Brett Bellemore, Nathan Gerbe · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:22CARElias LindholmAssists: Riley Nash, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.32 xG0–2
- P2 15:21CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:44ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 8:59CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P1 10:47CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:29ARIKyle Chipchura: Embellishment2 min
- P2 7:29CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P2 14:52ARIMichael Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:30CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:16CARBrad Malone: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:16ARIKyle Chipchura: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Vitale – McMillan8:05
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer4:05
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Hodgman3:27
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Klinkhammer – Hodgman6:28
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson16:50
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone15:59
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Murphy12:03
xG 0.11–0.94 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Lindholm10:26
xG 1.27–0.17 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Terry – Boychuk – Rask5:28
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone9:34
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Skinner13:42
xG 0.31–1.33 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Harrison14:49
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore12:29
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk15:37
xG 1.18–1.33 (47%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).