Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 02 | 012 | 212 | 03 | 0 | 229 |
| STL | 111 | 011 | 15 | 02 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:29STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Barret Jackman · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 0:46STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 2:19COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 5:13COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 2. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 3. STL Joakim Lindstrom scored
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:57COLMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P1 17:37COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:03STLJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:52STLMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:20STLIan Cole: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:58STLRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:02COLNick Holden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Mitchell – Everberg9:41
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche8:03
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – Landeskog10:39
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Iginla – McGinn – MacKinnon10:22
xG 0.03–1.16 (3%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson16:27
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie12:07
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden13:55
xG 0.15–1.11 (12%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Paajarvi – Schwartz8:31
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves8:33
xG 0.41–0.13 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Berglund – Jaskin7:22
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko12:27
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:49
xG 1.17–0.24 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Cole14:09
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).