Sun, Nov 2, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 111 | 211 | 333 |
| VAN | 114 | 03 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Deflected, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:38NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: James Neal, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:42NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: James Neal, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:27NSHColin WilsonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:49NSHJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P1 10:46NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:46VANLuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:46NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:31VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:26NSHMike Ribeiro: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:00VANLinden Vey: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36VANDerek Dorsett: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:36VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Forsberg5:40
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Cullen – Roy – Smith9:41
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque6:50
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wilson – Beck3:25
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones13:01
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:55
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:19
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata13:46
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Bonino8:43
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sestito – Vey2:35
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian11:24
xG 0.23–0.93 (20%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sbisa4:44
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa4:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber4:42
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).