Mon, Nov 3, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 117 | 211 | 02 | 2 | 434 |
| NYR | 115 | 08 | 210 | 06 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Matt Hunwick, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 7:18STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Brian Elliott · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 3:50STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:28NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Carl Hagelin, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 13:17NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 14:33STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Martin St. Louis stopped
- 2. STL Joakim Lindstrom stopped
- 3. NYR Lee Stempniak scored
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 5. NYR Rick Nash stopped
- 6. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:06STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:06NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:07STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:16STLSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:04NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:04STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:15STLMaxim Lapierre: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:57NYRMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:10NYRDylan McIlrath: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:23STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Berglund – Paajarvi4:58
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 8–1goals 1–1
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko2:08
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:29
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Lindstrom – Steen – Backes8:52
xG 0.33–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole10:04
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:07
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:58
xG 0.87–1.08 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Kreider – Hayes11:41
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Hagelin2:55
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Hagelin – Duclair6:55
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Brassard11:34
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Allen3:23
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Allen5:40
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Kostka13:11
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).