Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 117 | 310 | 532 |
| MTL | 011 | 08 | 09 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Andrew Shaw · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 9:57CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Kris Versteeg, David Rundblad · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 2:22CHIBrad RichardsAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 12:31CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 14:46CHIKris VersteegAssists: Bryan Bickell, David Rundblad · Backhand, 0.06 xG5–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:57CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:47CHIKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P1 5:47MTLMike Weaver: Embellishment2 min
- P1 10:18MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:01CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07CHIPatrick Sharp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:58MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 16:53MTLTom Gilbert: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 0:18CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:18MTLBrandon Prust: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:55CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Shaw8:24
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Smith6:56
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bickell – Versteeg – Kruger8:24
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Versteeg – Toews – Kane2:00
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:58
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Rundblad – van Riemsdyk12:09
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook12:28
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMalhotra – Prust – Bournival6:07
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:34
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty2:43
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Bourque – Eller6:46
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin8:48
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Weaver – Beaulieu7:24
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu5:10
xG 0.12–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).