Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 116 | 410 | 537 |
| COL | 27 | 08 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15COLJohn MitchellAssists: Alex Tanguay, Dennis Everberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:33COLJamie McGinnAssists: Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 19:56VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 2:27VANDerek DorsettAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Zack Kassian · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:47VANNick BoninoGWGAssists: Chris Higgins, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 9:16VANNick BoninoAssists: Chris Higgins, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 13:10VANShawn MatthiasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:27COLMarc-Andre Cliche: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:55VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:28COLNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P2 7:06COLNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:18VANKevin Bieksa: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:17COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P3 18:05VANKevin Bieksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian8:59
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Higgins – Bonino – Vey7:06
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:13
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat5:53
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev12:13
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber10:35
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 18–7goals 1–2
- Bieksa – Stanton10:57
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon3:03
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – O'Reilly7:46
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche4:08
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Holden5:31
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie7:11
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Hejda – Holden2:09
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).