Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 03 | 115 | 112 | 230 |
| ARI | 210 | 117 | 06 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29ARISam GagnerAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:35ARIMartin EratAssists: Martin Hanzal, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:34ARIAntoine VermetteGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 9:24TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 13:53TORCody FransonPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:05ARIBrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:59ARIMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:20TORStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P2 7:33ARIKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:33TORRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16ARIBrandon Gormley: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:00ARIRob Klinkhammer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:55TORDaniel Winnik: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:32ARIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:52TORDion Phaneuf: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak7:50
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri3:14
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Komarov – Holland5:17
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ashton – Panik – Carrick5:30
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Rielly3:05
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:07
xG 0.06–0.10 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson12:33
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Klinkhammer8:28
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder10:38
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan4:27
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Boedker7:27
xG 0.11–0.18 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson15:28
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Stone – Gormley6:07
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Murphy17:34
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).