Wed, Nov 5, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 27 | 113 | 00 | 328 |
| NYR | 110 | 110 | 15 | 15 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36NYRRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Matt Hunwick · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:39NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Matt Hunwick, Michael Kostka · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 12:02DETJakub KindlPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:15DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Drew Miller · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 12:10NYRLee StempniakAssists: Dominic Moore, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:52DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:50NYRDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:11NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:23DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:56DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:58NYRDominic Moore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:51NYRKevin Klein: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 7:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:38NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:07NYRConor Allen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36NYRMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:12DETJustin Abdelkader: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:12NYRMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- OT 0:46DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Glendening7:48
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Helm – Nestrasil – Sheahan8:51
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Abdelkader – Tatar10:57
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist11:01
xG 0.56–0.98 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:09
xG 1.32–0.24 (85%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Smith – DeKeyser12:22
xG 0.45–0.82 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Kindl – Lashoff12:15
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Nash – Brassard9:53
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin9:59
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Glass – Mueller – Duclair3:32
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Hayes5:12
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal7:45
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi10:03
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Kostka2:54
xG 0.26–0.28 (47%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).