Thu, Nov 6, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 110 | 09 | 231 |
| TBL | 19 | 213 | 211 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:22CGYJiri HudlerAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:01TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 4:02TBLBrian BoyleSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 4:22CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 0:40TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:50TBLValtteri FilppulaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:48TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:39CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:39TBLTyler Johnson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:58CGYMarkus Granlund: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:58TBLAnton Stralman: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:14TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:12TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:10TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – Byron – Baertschi8:21
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Glencross – Monahan – Jooris11:19
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan2:07
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Bouma – Bollig6:24
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Russell15:22
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie18:45
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Engelland – Diaz8:55
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Paquette – Drouin9:20
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:16
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos13:01
xG 0.59–0.53 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown9:09
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas3:17
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman10:34
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Garrison – Gudas14:16
xG 0.99–0.99 (50%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).