Thu, Nov 6, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 215 | 17 | 333 |
| DAL | 010 | 112 | 113 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:10NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Derek Roy, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:57NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 16:26DALTrevor DaleyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:23DALPatrick EavesAssists: Tyler Seguin, Antoine Roussel · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 13:47NSHMatt CullenGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:03NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:39DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:17DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:27DALSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wilson – Jarnkrok10:12
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck11:34
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Roy – Smith10:21
xG 1.10–1.19 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg12:00
xG 0.36–0.82 (30%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones13:27
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones2:29
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi21:46
xG 1.15–1.37 (46%)attempts 29–32goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Roussel – Seguin4:17
xG 1.07–0.08 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Nichushkin8:34
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin10:13
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Benn5:33
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski16:38
xG 1.79–0.56 (76%)attempts 26–24goals 1–1
- Daley – Benn2:32
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Benn – Dillon15:39
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).