Thu, Nov 6, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 19 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 338 |
| COL | 119 | 17 | 16 | 02 | 3 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31COLNick HoldenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:20TORPhil KesselAssists: Cody Franson, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 4:43TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 5:43COLAlex TanguayAssists: Zach Redmond, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 11:45COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:44TORRichard PanikAssists: Mike Santorelli, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 5. COL Alex Tanguay scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:39TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:03TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:09COLZach Redmond: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:55COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55TORStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:17TORMatt Frattin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:32COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Kadri – Panik2:02
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Holland – Panik6:37
xG 0.34–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:25
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kessel – Kadri5:05
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Percy2:15
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Robidas – Franson3:36
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Robidas – Polak6:56
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – McLeod – Cliche8:00
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:54
xG 1.00–1.15 (46%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:59
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg11:58
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie14:30
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson19:40
xG 1.23–1.64 (43%)attempts 29–20goals 1–1
- Holden – Redmond16:39
xG 0.44–1.16 (27%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).