Fri, Nov 7, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 019 | 114 | 219 | 352 |
| BUF | 012 | 18 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:26BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Brian Gionta, Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:20EDMIiro PakarinenAssists: Mark Fayne, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 6:34BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:42EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: David Perron, Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 15:45EDMBoyd GordonGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12BUFAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:36BUFChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:36EDMKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:03BUFAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:03EDMKeith Aulie: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00BUFTyler Ennis: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Pakarinen – Draisaitl6:17
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Arcobello – Yakupov14:45
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu9:50
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:41
xG 1.25–1.06 (54%)attempts 23–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Aulie15:04
xG 1.56–0.35 (82%)attempts 30–11goals 3–0
- Schultz – Marincin16:47
xG 1.47–0.76 (66%)attempts 26–13goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Petry16:28
xG 1.03–0.88 (54%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Larsson – Flynn9:22
xG 0.43–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons12:19
xG 0.68–0.92 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Deslauriers11:22
xG 0.24–0.89 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Stewart – Ennis12:56
xG 0.69–1.57 (31%)attempts 12–27goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers15:57
xG 1.13–0.88 (56%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Zadorov13:51
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Benoit – Ristolainen17:00
xG 0.39–2.04 (16%)attempts 11–35goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).