Fri, Nov 7, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 13 | 08 | 16 | 217 |
| DET | 214 | 210 | 07 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18NJDSteve BernierAssists: Bryce Salvador, Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 18:55DETJakub KindlPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:28DETBrendan SmithAssists: Joakim Andersson, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:41DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:39DETNiklas KronwallUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 2:26NJDJordin TootooAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:22DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:38NJDJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34NJDBryce Salvador: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:15NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P2 0:15DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:35NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:21DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:06NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:13DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Bernier – Gionta3:14
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Tootoo – Gionta2:58
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Elias – Ruutu4:44
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ryder – Zajac – Sislo2:30
xG 0.08–0.06 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky8:31
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Larsson5:29
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Severson3:39
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan8:25
xG 0.79–0.19 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist10:45
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening10:13
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Cleary – Helm – Nestrasil7:19
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser14:08
xG 1.03–0.11 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:59
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:32
xG 0.22–0.46 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).