Fri, Nov 7, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 312 | 04 | 324 |
| CHI | 115 | 112 | 013 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:12CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Marian Hossa, Andrew Shaw · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:56CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Brad Richards, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:03WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:13WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Niskanen, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:55WSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:44WSHAlex Ovechkin: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 3:12WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:18CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky6:13
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich8:32
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:36
xG 0.23–0.26 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Beagle – Latta – O'Brien4:19
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:00
xG 0.94–0.59 (61%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Green – Schmidt16:23
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson20:14
xG 0.35–0.98 (26%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Regin – Morin7:44
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Shaw – Saad11:57
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Toews – Kane – Smith13:02
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Versteeg – Kruger9:48
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRundblad – van Riemsdyk11:20
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson20:40
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook14:41
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 19–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).