Sat, Nov 8, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 311 | 315 | 013 | 639 |
| BUF | 04 | 18 | 09 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 3:31PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 15:04PITKris LetangAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 4:56PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 14:01PITRobert BortuzzoAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
- P2 16:52BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Josh Gorges, Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 19:15PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Blake Comeau, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:04BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:17BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:27BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:15BUFTyson Strachan: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:15PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:35BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:35PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:43PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:42BUFNikita Zadorov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:00BUFMike Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45PITBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCormick won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist8:16
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 3–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling5:55
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill2:04
xG 0.15–0.09 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Comeau9:17
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang12:32
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo12:25
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres15:43
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Larsson – Flynn6:20
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons9:16
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Stafford – Hodgson – Deslauriers7:11
xG 0.09–0.64 (12%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Stewart – Ennis10:27
xG 0.13–0.94 (12%)attempts 3–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zadorov14:31
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Strachan – Weber15:22
xG 0.10–0.57 (15%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers10:52
xG 0.63–1.11 (36%)attempts 11–13goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).