Sat, Nov 8, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 114 | 113 | 435 |
| TOR | 316 | 010 | 25 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kevin Klein, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:27TORPhil KesselPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:11TORPeter HollandSHAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 18:59TORRichard PanikAssists: Cody Franson, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 19:20NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 17:44NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 4:33NYRRick NashAssists: Martin St. Louis, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 7:27TORRoman PolakAssists: Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 14:26TORLeo KomarovGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:41NYRConor Allen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:03NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:29TORJosh Leivo: Interference2 min
- P2 8:27TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Hayes – Duclair7:02
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:04
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Brassard13:19
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 1–2
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin12:21
xG 0.70–1.11 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKostka – Allen11:55
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Staal – Girardi16:08
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal2:52
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Kadri – Panik12:44
xG 1.01–0.77 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:10
xG 0.85–1.01 (46%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Frattin – Carrick – Leivo4:41
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland11:27
xG 0.10–0.64 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Gardiner14:54
xG 1.22–0.80 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Franson16:36
xG 0.54–0.99 (36%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly13:48
xG 0.16–0.99 (14%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).