Sat, Nov 8, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 09 | 321 | 339 |
| PHI | 111 | 310 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:48PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 11:24PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Matt Read, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–3
- P2 16:22PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–4
- P3 2:29COLMax TalbotUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 6:46COLAlex TanguayAssists: Tyson Barrie, Dennis Everberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 11:38COLZach RedmondAssists: Max Talbot, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:25COLZach Redmond: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42PHINick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P1 19:07COLNathan MacKinnon: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 14:06COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:06PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:40COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:05COLNate Guenin: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:53PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:11PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene11:45
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche5:52
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg9:02
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon8:46
xG 0.38–1.17 (25%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Barrie3:27
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Holden – Redmond9:04
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie8:21
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Read – Couturier9:04
xG 1.29–0.18 (88%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare4:38
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds12:03
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Umberger – VandeVelde3:15
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto8:09
xG 1.09–0.30 (78%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz6:57
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Coburn – Del Zotto4:04
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).