Mon, Nov 10, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 010 | 05 | 123 |
| CAR | 15 | 214 | 112 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07CGYDavid JonesPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 17:30CARZach BoychukAssists: Justin Faulk, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:50CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Riley Nash · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:15CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 9:10CARTim GleasonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:58CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46CGYDevin Setoguchi: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44CGYMarkus Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:45CGYKris Russell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Granlund7:51
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bouma – Bollig – Jooris5:08
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Glencross – Byron4:29
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Setoguchi – Bouma – Jooris2:22
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell19:23
xG 1.21–0.69 (64%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Engelland – Smid14:04
xG 1.11–1.04 (52%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie18:26
xG 0.31–1.07 (22%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Semin – Skinner7:41
xG 1.59–0.10 (94%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Lindholm15:40
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Terry3:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Skinner6:20
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk17:04
xG 1.12–0.67 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Liles15:49
xG 0.82–0.90 (48%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison15:19
xG 0.92–1.01 (48%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).