Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 4, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 217 | 29 | 432 |
| ARI | 117 | 18 | 112 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42ARIConnor MurphyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 11:06ARIJoe VitaleAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 17:59DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrick Eaves, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 18:56DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:19DALErik ColeAssists: Colton Sceviour, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 16:17ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Michael Stone, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 18:44DALRyan GarbuttSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:06DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:06ARIMartin Hanzal: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:07DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:07ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:13DALAles Hemsky: Holding2 min
- P1 7:20DALTrevor Daley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:41ARIMartin Erat: Holding2 min
- P2 1:09DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:29ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:25DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:03ARIMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:32ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:18DALTrevor Daley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:50DALPatrick Eaves: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Sceviour7:26
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin10:46
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Garbutt3:28
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Spezza – Hemsky – McKenzie5:12
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg13:35
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Daley – Benn8:11
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Daley – Dillon6:05
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Chipchura – Vitale5:07
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker11:20
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder7:48
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Erat – Hanzal – McMillan9:01
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Gormley10:17
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:22
xG 0.37–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Yandle – Murphy14:56
xG 0.33–0.85 (28%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).