Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 28 | 110 | 00 | 324 |
| VAN | 012 | 212 | 110 | 13 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:13VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Linden Vey, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:02OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Curtis Lazar, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 16:17VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Nick Bonino, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:53OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:36VANKevin BieksaAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 8:42OTTMark StoneAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 4:05VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:02OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:47OTTJared Cowen: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:33VANNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Stone – Lazar9:50
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Legwand – Neil – Smith7:01
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Zibanejad13:25
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson14:20
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci15:50
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki5:37
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVey – DeFazio – Horvat3:12
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen14:33
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Richardson – Matthias – Jensen5:20
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino15:24
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:44
xG 1.18–0.20 (85%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:57
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber13:02
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).