Thu, Nov 13, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 017 | 214 | 08 | 239 |
| TBL | 09 | 08 | 116 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:23SJSJoe ThorntonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:37SJSTyler KennedyGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 9:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Andrej Sustr, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:52TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 18:30SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:19SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:37TBLTyler Johnson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:37TBLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:39SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto9:58
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:50
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Kennedy – Desjardins – McGinn6:20
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Wingels – Goodrow10:14
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:02
xG 0.95–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers13:13
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hannan – Braun2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov10:47
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn6:46
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown4:14
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos4:23
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman12:44
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Garrison – Gudas12:28
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).