Sat, Nov 15, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 08 | 112 | 225 |
| CGY | 09 | 19 | 37 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:12CGYPaul ByronAssists: Sven Baertschi, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 2:29CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: Lance Bouma · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:37CGYJosh JoorisPPGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:51OTTBobby RyanAssists: Milan Michalek, Eric Gryba · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:57CGYLance BoumaAssists: Markus Granlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:46CGYSven Baertschi: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:00CGYPaul Byron: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:33OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:33CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:33CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:20OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:34OTTClarke MacArthur: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:30CGYBrandon Bollig: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:28CGYDennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jooris won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Neil – Smith8:49
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson10:09
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Stone – Lazar8:23
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Zibanejad8:13
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen2:45
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson12:56
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Cowen – Ceci12:06
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Glencross – Monahan8:07
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Baertschi – Jooris6:59
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund9:15
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Bouma – Bollig – Reinhart5:06
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell11:17
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Wideman – Smid4:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie2:19
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).