Sun, Nov 16, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 09 | 05 | 224 |
| CHI | 216 | 08 | 423 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Patrick Kane, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:49DALCurtis McKenzieAssists: Erik Cole, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 5:28DALShawn HorcoffAssists: Vernon Fiddler, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P1 11:58CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:49CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 12:34CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrap-around, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 14:19CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brad Richards, Michal Rozsival · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 15:29CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:57CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:57DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:59DALTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:50DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:49DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:29CHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Moen – Fiddler8:02
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – McKenzie10:52
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:37
xG 0.47–0.58 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
- Hemsky – Benn – Seguin13:31
xG 0.39–1.00 (28%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg20:49
xG 1.16–0.58 (67%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Dillon – Oleksiak7:42
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Dillon – Klingberg2:24
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad12:34
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom10:22
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane14:39
xG 0.82–0.70 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Carcillo – Bickell – Shaw7:14
xG 0.17–0.84 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Keith8:39
xG 0.55–0.06 (91%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:04
xG 0.96–0.59 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Hjalmarsson2:05
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).