Sun, Nov 16, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 08 | 112 | 228 |
| EDM | 015 | 010 | 19 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08ARIBrandon GormleyPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 12:51ARIMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Lauri Korpikoski · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 14:10EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:12EDMBoyd Gordon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:11ARIMichael Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 9:49ARIKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:49EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:44EDMBen Scrivens: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:20ARIShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 13:07ARIJoe Vitale: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:01EDMBenoit Pouliot: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Vitale – McMillan5:34
xG 0.46–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker2:00
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Rieder13:14
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Gagner – Boedker2:09
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Gormley9:39
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Yandle – Murphy13:27
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:13
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins7:53
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Arcobello9:18
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins5:39
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Arcobello – Yakupov2:41
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry15:02
xG 0.89–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz2:57
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Fayne11:31
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).