Tue, Nov 18, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 112 | 08 | 130 |
| BUF | 03 | 37 | 14 | 414 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:25BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Cody McCormick, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:29SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:54BUFBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Brian Flynn, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:48BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Brian Gionta, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 19:18BUFBrian GiontaENAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:29BUFTyler Ennis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:07SJSAdam Burish: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37BUFTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:20SJSMatt Irwin: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:20BUFNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:20SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:28BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:16BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl9:42
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Wingels – Nieto6:01
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Goodrow6:55
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Sheppard2:08
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Irwin11:47
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun13:13
xG 0.28–0.27 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Mueller14:15
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn9:58
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:30
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno8:12
xG 0.01–0.10 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- McCormick – Stafford – Deslauriers8:24
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zadorov13:46
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber12:41
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Strachan – Myers13:34
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).