Thu, Nov 20, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19 | 010 | 08 | 127 |
| DAL | 09 | 09 | 39 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21ARILauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Sam Gagner, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P3 0:19DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:52DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 15:42DALJason SpezzaAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:20ARIDavid Schlemko: Holding2 min
- P1 12:45DALJyrki Jokipakka: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50DALJohn Klingberg: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 5:23ARIDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder14:36
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Erat – Chipchura – Klinkhammer8:58
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan4:50
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker14:09
xG 0.46–0.91 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Stone12:47
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson16:23
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Yandle – Murphy17:36
xG 0.34–1.12 (23%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin12:56
xG 0.95–0.13 (88%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel8:14
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves10:50
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour8:42
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski17:36
xG 1.27–0.26 (83%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Dillon – Jokipakka2:10
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – Klingberg17:28
xG 0.61–0.51 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).