Thu, Nov 20, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 16 | 14 | 422 |
| CGY | 211 | 19 | 07 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00CHIAdam ClendeningPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:12CHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Marcus Kruger · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:44CGYPaul ByronPPAssists: Josh Jooris, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.37 xG2–1
- P1 14:38CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Markus Granlund · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:52CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 12:33CGYSean MonahanAssists: Curtis Glencross, Paul Byron · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 9:12CHIPatrick KaneGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:04CGYTJ Brodie: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 11:51CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:44CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:34CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:11CHIMichal Rozsival: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:22CHIJohnny Oduya: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:48CGYJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad11:31
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bickell – Smith – Morin6:06
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Kruger – Nordstrom7:58
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:19
xG 0.48–0.35 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:27
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Clendening8:28
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:35
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Bollig – Reinhart – Baertschi6:21
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Byron – Ferland – Jooris7:13
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Glencross – Bouma – Monahan10:24
xG 0.15–0.58 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund10:47
xG 0.08–0.54 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid4:08
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie2:07
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Engelland – Diaz5:09
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).