Fri, Feb 20, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 116 | 215 | 012 | 343 |
| BUF | 16 | 06 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 5:51NYRCarl HagelinAssists: J.T. Miller, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:37NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:05NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:35BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:50BUFTyson Strachan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:31NYRLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:11NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:03BUFTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:03NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:43BUFChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:36BUFZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:36NYRJ.T. Miller: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:06BUFMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:21NYRDerek Stepan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:00
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider11:32
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:51
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller8:37
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Hunwick14:31
xG 0.99–0.36 (73%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:04
xG 1.07–0.60 (64%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal13:49
xG 0.51–0.39 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Ennis – Girgensons9:58
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ellis – Hodgson – Larsson4:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Flynn2:50
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Foligno – Flynn3:41
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber4:17
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Bogosian3:04
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Strachan – Ristolainen2:32
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).