Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 4, Calgary Flames 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 18 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 429 |
| CGY | 012 | 112 | 39 | 04 | 2 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Patrik Elias, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:46NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 10:18CGYCurtis GlencrossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:53NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.44 xG3–1
- P3 2:26CGYJosh JoorisPPAssists: Micheal Ferland, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 10:26NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Michael Ryder, Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 17:38CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Lance Bouma, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 19:55CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 2. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 3. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 4. NJD Michael Cammalleri scored
- 5. CGY Corban Knight stopped
- 6. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 7. CGY Jiri Hudler scored
- 8. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:25NJDJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P1 9:25CGYPaul Byron: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:25NJDMichael Cammalleri: Holding2 min
- P2 13:26CGYLance Bouma: Interference2 min
- P2 14:09NJDMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:02NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10CGYDennis Wideman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:09NJDMichael Ryder: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56NJDMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:11NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Josefson won the faceoff against Jooris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Havlat – Henrique8:51
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac10:25
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Gionta8:47
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ruutu – Josefson8:11
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Helgeson3:39
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson16:11
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Gelinas9:13
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Ferland – Jooris5:55
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund6:14
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Jooris5:08
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Knight – Baertschi5:27
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell15:16
xG 0.98–0.80 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Engelland – Smid11:23
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:46
xG 0.17–0.99 (15%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).