Mon, Nov 24, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 010 | 04 | 01 | 0 | 021 |
| NYI | 012 | 015 | 016 | 03 | 2 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 2. PHI Scott Laughton stopped
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:57PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 2:48NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:48PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:58NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min
- P2 12:36PHIMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:12NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:01PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Rinaldo – Bellemare2:26
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Laughton8:29
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:26
xG 0.42–0.93 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn12:04
xG 0.31–1.16 (21%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – MacDonald3:35
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – MacDonald2:09
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Coburn9:11
xG 0.24–0.51 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kulemin – Tavares14:19
xG 1.47–0.37 (80%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey12:16
xG 1.08–0.35 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome9:53
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:41
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Donovan13:24
xG 0.99–0.19 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic15:26
xG 1.05–0.50 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:57
xG 1.18–0.75 (61%)attempts 28–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).