Tue, Nov 25, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 4, Arizona Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 110 | 213 | 13 | 435 |
| ARI | 312 | 08 | 011 | 02 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Michael Stone, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:20ARIMichael StoneAssists: Keith Yandle, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:53ARITobias RiederAssists: Shane Doan · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:49COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Erik Johnson, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 1:36COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 4:05COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 3:16COLDaniel BrièreGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:35COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:35ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:45ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P2 9:23ARISam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:33COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Iginla
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon15:11
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Brière – O'Reilly – Duchene14:17
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Talbot – Vincour – Street10:43
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey7:10
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie2:36
xG 0.34–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson18:03
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
- Holden – Redmond11:02
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Klinkhammer13:08
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan5:42
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder13:13
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker13:21
xG 0.71–0.95 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone18:08
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Murphy11:36
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson19:11
xG 0.89–0.90 (50%)attempts 20–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).