Wed, Nov 26, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 19 | 07 | 226 |
| BUF | 06 | 04 | 110 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 14:20WPGMichael FrolikSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 5:30BUFChris StewartAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:06BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:13WPGZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:23BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:36BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:36WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:06WPGAdam Lowry: Boarding5 min
- P2 14:06WPGAdam Lowry: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:06WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:06BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:51WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:49BUFAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:33
xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Slater – Frolik – Halischuk3:44
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Lowry5:25
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Bogosian8:50
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma4:54
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba9:53
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn7:40
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Stewart – Foligno5:14
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Deslauriers8:36
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons9:10
xG 0.30–0.59 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zadorov12:55
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Strachan – Zadorov3:29
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Strachan – Meszaros10:58
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).