Sat, Nov 29, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 08 | 010 | 127 |
| TBL | 05 | 112 | 315 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:13OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:13TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:16TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Ryan Callahan · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 8:09TBLBrenden MorrowAssists: Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:53TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jason Garrison · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:54OTTMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:42TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57TBLOndrej Palat: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:22OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:54OTTClarke MacArthur: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone2:02
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Greening – Zibanejad11:36
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson8:57
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Neil – Condra12:03
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch3:34
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch10:06
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson16:37
xG 0.44–0.57 (43%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Connolly – Drouin11:43
xG 0.56–0.22 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:46
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:00
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Paquette9:33
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:10
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr15:07
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman2:12
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).