Sat, Nov 29, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 4, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 114 | 215 | 434 |
| SJS | 314 | 212 | 19 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Tommy Wingels, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:53ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Devante Smith-Pelly · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:35SJSLogan CoutureSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 19:46SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 2:46SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Justin Braun · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 6:09SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: James Sheppard · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 18:52ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 0:29ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 4:20ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 19:10SJSMatt NietoENAssists: Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 12:41SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:51ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:32SJSJames Sheppard: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:32SJSJames Sheppard: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:37SJSMike Brown: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:04ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P2 16:27SJSJohn Scott: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:56SJSMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:56ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:30ANARene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:13SJSMike Brown: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:02ANARyan Kesler: Interference2 min
- P3 17:36ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey3:37
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon2:27
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Palmieri5:36
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Cogliano6:53
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Manson11:34
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Brewer – Vatanen11:36
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Clark – Lindholm7:51
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – McGinn8:36
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Nieto – Hertl7:35
xG 0.54–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–2
- Brown – Desjardins – Scott5:22
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels7:43
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon11:42
xG 1.02–0.49 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Hannan – Irwin11:08
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:23
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).