Sun, Nov 30, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 112 | 211 | 333 |
| DET | 211 | 17 | 212 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:16DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:37VANLinden VeyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:24DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jakub Kindl · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 12:26VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Yannick Weber, Linden Vey · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:36DETDanny DeKeyserGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Jurco · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 16:10VANLinden VeyAssists: Shawn Matthias, Brad Richardson · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:10DETPavel DatsyukENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:02VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:06VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:26DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:52VANDerek Dorsett: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:52DETKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:59DETKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31VANLinden Vey: Interference2 min
- P2 12:34VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Vey8:36
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata12:30
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino10:19
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat8:24
xG 0.10–1.45 (7%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:50
xG 0.59–0.07 (90%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Stanton12:54
xG 0.24–0.72 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Sbisa12:46
xG 0.14–1.13 (11%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Franzen – Helm8:25
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader6:05
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening7:52
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:48
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser12:43
xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Smith4:53
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith6:52
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).