Mon, Dec 1, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 413 | 16 | 524 |
| EDM | 17 | 09 | 111 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 0:36ARITobias RiederSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:34ARITobias RiederSHAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 4:53ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 19:43ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 2:03ARIMartin EratPPAssists: Michael Stone, David Schlemko · Snap, 0.30 xG5–1
- P3 4:21EDMJeff PetryAssists: Oscar Klefbom, David Perron · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:16ARIZbynek Michalek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:15ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:15EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:26ARIAntoine Vermette: Kneeing2 min
- P1 19:49ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:08EDMTaylor Hall: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:11ARIMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:15EDMMark Arcobello: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:20ARIMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Korpikoski – Boedker8:12
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Erat – Hanzal – McMillan9:32
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder10:58
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Chipchura – Vitale7:04
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone5:58
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Schlemko3:56
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Arcobello – Yakupov10:26
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Pitlick – Draisaitl8:34
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:06
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gordon – Pinizzotto – Gazdic4:46
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz12:35
xG 0.84–0.48 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Klefbom12:41
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry3:08
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).