Wed, Dec 3, 2014·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 113 | 015 | 141 |
| CHI | 113 | 07 | 313 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 12:38STLIan ColeAssists: Patrik Berglund, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 0:59CHIKris VersteegGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:47CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 5:19CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Kris Versteeg, David Rundblad · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:03CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:31CHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
- P1 11:26STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:31CHIAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:57CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:03STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:26CHIMichal Rozsival: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:26CHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:27CHIBrent Seabrook: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:27STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:27STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Backes
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Backes – Berglund7:45
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves5:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:34
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Berglund2:23
xG 0.06–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Butler – Pietrangelo2:44
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:19
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Cole – Shattenkirk2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:23
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom8:07
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:09
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Carcillo – Bickell – Shaw7:29
xG 0.16–0.36 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook11:23
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson12:11
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Rundblad5:34
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).