Thu, Dec 4, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 211 | 25 | 526 |
| TOR | 013 | 210 | 19 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53NJDEric GelinasPPAssists: Jon Merrill, Damien Brunner · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:37TORMike SantorelliAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:00NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Steve Bernier, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 11:14TORNazem KadriSHAssists: Mike Santorelli, Stephane Robidas · Snap, 0.43 xG2–2
- P2 16:48NJDMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Eric Gelinas, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–2
- P3 6:12NJDSteve BernierGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–2
- P3 11:58NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Ryder, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 19:25TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:16TORCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:42TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00TORJoffrey Lupul: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29NJDMichael Ryder: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:56NJDTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Gomez – Bernier2:28
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Bernier – Gionta3:59
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Sislo12:17
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Ryder – Cammalleri – Henrique14:20
xG 0.74–0.83 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Helgeson15:50
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Greene – Severson13:55
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill9:25
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Winnik – Holland10:07
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Santorelli – Kadri12:18
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Booth – Smith – Panik6:47
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:55
xG 0.33–1.17 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Rielly11:47
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Franson14:59
xG 0.86–0.61 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Robidas – Gardiner2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).